Snow next week? Maybe!

Well...if everyone is enjoying the wild cold weather, you may be in for a treat next week. After having a nice start to the workweek next week, changes may be in the works for mid-week. A shortwave low looks to develop next week and swing right over our region by Wednesday. This strong low will pull down cold air from the north just as it moves over SW Virginia. Below is the image of the 4-panel MRF view for next week, you can click on it to view the larger image:


Now, taking a look at 850mb temps for this time period. There looks to be a window of about 12 hours that 5,000' temps will be below 0°C. Luckily this area is right over SW VA. The forecasting QPF is showing up to .25" of precip, equating to about 2 or three inches of possible snow, but with ground temperatures still above freezing, it likely won't stay around for long, if it does happen. The 540 line is circle around us, but PU/MO counties are right on the edge of the rain-snow line at the surface. This is still a week away, so things can change, as they have over the past 24 hours with this model. I don't expect too much from this system that swings through, but it would be nice to see some snow showers before Thanksgiving break. I'll keep everyone up to date as the week(end) progresses.

Possibility of Snow?

The next 10 days look to be interesting for the NRV. Over the next few days, temperatures will be in the upper 40s to around 50. Precipitation looks to stay out of the area for a few days, until around Wednesday, November 14th. What's interesting is this may be a potent system, bringing cold air with it along with the precip. The current MRF model run indicates 850mb temperatures to be below freezing; around -2.0°C, along with the 540 rain-snow line to be located south of our area into Southside, VA. This sets us up with temperatures just above freezing for the event. Here is a look at the forecast date using MRF:

This will have to watched as this model indicates a possibility of 2" of snow for the CWA, but we are over a week away, and any forecasting done this early is definitely going to change over the next few days.

Next week

MRF model still has a cold punch of air coming in for next Wednesday, 7-Nov, but have lengthened the time period a bit.  Now, most of Tuesday may be hard pressed to get out of the 40s, along with Wednesday. 

 

The 540 line (rain/snow line) looks to set up shop just to our Northwest, along the West Virginia/Virginia border on Tuesday morning, with some light precip falling at that time due to the cold front passage.  850mb temperatures will be below freezing.  Right now, amounts look light, but some of the higher elevations, and westward-facing slopes, may crank out some snow flurries if the precip can stick around with the cold air.  No accumulations though.  Still a few days away though, and this model may change, although the GFS model is a little more conservative, but still brings in the cold air for Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Colder weather is possibly on it's way

Looks like some cooler weather may be on it’s way come next week.  Looking at the 10-day forecast model MRF, high temperatures aren’t expected to get out of the 40s on Wednesday, November 7^th.  A cold front looks to move through the area the day before, and high pressure will funnel down colder Canadian air on Wednesday.  I think it’s too early to talk about snow, as it is too warm right now, and this system is still at 6.5 days away…but it won’t be long before we’re talking about the possibility of the first flakes of the season.

Fall weather is here...

Well...it looks like the hottest weather of the year is over with. The next 7 to 10 days look wonderful if you like cooler weather. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70's during the days ahead, and fall back into the 50s during the night....we may see lows in the 40s this weekend. All in all, it's shaping up to be a nice week and weekend.

Also of note, the NHC has just upgraded newly formed TD 9 to TS Humberto. He looks to be a good rain-maker for most of eastern Texas over the next few days. We also have TD 8 just SE of the Lesser Antilles. This system will have to be monitored the next few days.

Last months storm in Dublin

I have finally gotten around to uploading a webpage for the Aug. 24th storm in Dublin.  You can find it here:

http://pulaskicounty.midatlanticweather.com/20070824.html

 

I found out today that the new laptop I ordered back on Aug 8 is being delayed, so it won't get here until around Sept 27th....hopefully.  By then, analysis will be much simpler and faster as it will run the program, and not just my home desktop pc...allowing me to do everything on one machine.

Cat 5 Felix

I have been watching Felix over the past couple of days...but this is very impressive. Between the 5 and 8pm updates, Felix's pressure dropped 22mb....that's very rapid for a strengthening hurricane.

Felix is now a Cat 5, and as of 8pm:

Location: 13.8N, 72.9W

Movement: WNW @ 18mph

Max winds: 165mph

Minimum pressure: 934mb

At first, the US looked to miss out on this storm altogether, but now, there is the possibility that he could swing north due to a front that is expected to make it's way across the country by mid week. If this front moves into the gulf states before Felix makes landfall in the western gulf, the front could help steer Felix into the Texan Gulf Coast. This is the question right now, but more than likely Felix will miss the US, but it isn't out of the equation totally. Here are the possible tracks:

You can see that most of the possibilities keep Felix in Mexico, but there are two that shift it toward Texas.

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Something of another note to watch is a disturbance in the western Atlantic. If this system would develop, it may make it's way toward eastern Florida or the East Coast. We'll see what happens over the next few days. Here are the possibilities of this system:

Friday, August 24th....Dublin, VA

Here's a short clip of the action that occurred last week in Dublin. Quarter size hail was reported with this storm. More analysis will come later this week, and I should have a page up and running by Sunday with detailed information about the storms that fired last Friday.

Webpage for Tueday's storms

I have created a webpage with some radar information about the storms that moved through the area last Tuesday.

 

http://pulaskicounty.midatlanticweather.com/20070821.html

 

I'll also be creating another webpage for the severe storm we had here in Pulaski County on Friday as soon as I get some of the archived data and analyze it. 

Tuesday's mess

I just wanted to throw a few radar images on here. These are from Tuesday. The first is a short video clip of the action that passed through the NRV around 2pm:

This picture below shows the outflow boundary that cause some power outages in Pulaski and Montgomery counties on Tuesday. As you saw in the video, this boundary is created by the thunderstorm, then rides ahead of it, usually bringing high wind gusts before any rain falls in the area.


I'll be adding more images to my website later this evening, as I still have to get the images out of archive from the weather service and then analyze them. I'll post the link to the web page as soon as I publish it.

Today's storms

If you were in the NRV today, you likely took notice of the weather as some severe storms rolled through around 2pm.  Wind gusts up to 70mph occurred, along with some short, but heavy, downpours. 

 

I'll try and have some radar images and analysis for some of the stronger storms up on the blog by tomorrow night...

Hurricane Dean enters the SW Gulf of Mexico

Dean has crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and has moved over into the Bay of Campeche of the Gulf of Mexico.  Here are the latest stats:

 

As of 5pm:

Location:  19.4N, 91.3W

Movement:  W @ 20mph

Max Winds:  80mph

Minimum Pressure:  970mb

 

Gusts to 200mph battered the eastern Yucatan, as Dean made landfall as a Cat 5, the worst they come.  Some reports indicate that the storm surge from this storm was up to 23 feet. 

 

High pressure will help steer Dean well south of the U.S.  Dean may grow back into a major hurricane (Cat 3 or more) before making a second landfall in Mexico, on the Emerald Coast.  Dean will likely be a Cat 2 at landfall, but he may grow just a little above the Cat 3 level.  After Dean makes landfall, he will rapidly loose hurricane status and will bring flooding rains to the higher elevations.  The next few days may bring the remnants of Dean into the SW of the U.S.

First week of classes Forecast

The first week of classes looks to be hot!  91 is the forecast high for Monday, with upper 80's Tuesday and Wednesday.  Lower to middle 60's looks to be the lows during the first half of the week.  There is a 30% chance of afternoon and evening T-storms every day and into the early nighttime hours.  Thursday looks to be a little cooler...highs in the lower 80's.  Expect lows in the mid-60's the second half of the week, and Friday/Saturday have highs in the mid-80s.  Humidity sticks around the entire week...so don't expect it to feel much like these temperatures at all. 

 

On another note, northern New Hampshire and parts of Maine are under a Frost Advisory tonight, with lows expected to be in the 30's.  It won't be long until things cool off around here and we start seeing snowflakes.

Dean looks to head toward Mexico

As of 8pm:

Location:  17.5N, 77.8W

Movement:  W @ 20mph

Max Winds:  145mph

Minimum Pressure:  930mb

 

The latest model runs indicate that Dean looks to take a more southern route.  Mexico looks to be under the gun entirely, with just a slight chance that Dean will make a sharp right turn after he emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on the western side of the Yucatan.  This being said, southern Texas looks to miss a direct hit.  Cancun looks like it will see another hurricane like it did back in 1988...with winds up to 155mph, which is a Cat 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  As he crosses over the Yucatan, Dean will likely weaken to a Cat 1 or 2.  With very warm SSTs in the Gulf, Dean will regain strength probably to a Cat 3 before reaching the western Gulf and once again bearing down on Mexico. 

Major Hurricane Dean

Hurricane Dean is now a Category 4 storm.  Winds have increased to 150mph, and Dean is expected to reach Cat 5 strength before reaching the northern most part of the Yucatan. 

 

As of 5pm:

Location:  16.1N, 70.2W....about 455 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica.

Movement:  WNW @ 18mph

Max Winds:  150mph

Minimum pressure:  930mb

 

For the past few days, models have continued to indicate that Dean will interact with the Yucatan and will weaken before moving into the Gulf.  As of now, the main concern for a U.S. landfall is around Brownsville, Texas.  There is still a margin of error that could take the storm either north or south a couple hundred miles.  If Dean moves just a few miles north over the next few days, he may not interact at all with the Yucatan peninsula and would likely maintain major hurricane strength as he moves into the Gulf.  This is still yet to be seen, but will be monitored over the next couple of days.  The only thing that hasn't changed is the time period for landfall, which will be around Thursday of this coming week.

Hurricane Dean

The latest on Dean:

As of 11pm:
Location: 14.1N, 58.7W
Movement: West @ 25mph
Max winds: 100mph
Minimum pressure: 976mb

Dean looks to continue to strengthen as he heads west through the southern Caribbean. We're expecting Dean to reach Cat 4 strength as he swings through or just south of Jamaica. Right now, Dean looks to make landfall in the Yucatan, then head out into the SW Gulf of Mexico. If for some reason, Dean just swings a little further north, a U.S. landfall will be possible, and Dean will likely grow back quickly into a major hurricane as he reaches the very warm waters of the Gulf. Tomorrow should tell the tale of where Dean will go, and we'll likely have a better idea if he will go through the Yucatan or just north of it. I'll post again tomorrow when new data and model runs come in.

Severe cell over central Virginia

This is a couple snapshots of a severe storm that was said to have produced 1" diameter hail in central Virginia earlier this evening.

This is a 3-D look at the cell. The bright pink area above the radar image is the hail core of the storm. The red area trailing the pink is the updraft and possible hail that is being held up by the storm. A later image, 5 minutes later, shows the core collapsing and falling toward the ground.

Here is another image taken of the cell. As you can see the tops on this cell were over 30,000 ft. This is what a typical single-cell thunderstorm looks like in a cross-section....this is the type of thunderstorm we see around hear and is typically referred to as a "garden-variety thunderstorm."

Although this storm wasn't located in the NRV, I thought it was interesting as it was said to have produced some very large hail for central and western Virginia.

Hot, Hot, HOT, and TS Dean...

Did everyone enjoy today's hot weather?  If not, don't expect to like tomorrow much either.  Temperatures got up into the lower and middle 90's around the NRV today.  Tomorrow's high is expected to be around 94 for Blacksburg.  Little to no rain is expected over the next few days, just very widely scattered t-storms for tomorrow and when classes begin next week.

 

TS Dean is gaining strength just as predicted...

 

As of 5pm:

Location:  13.1N, 47.9W, around 910 miles east of the Lesser Antilles

Movement:  WNW @ 22mph

Max winds:  65mph

Minimum pressure:  994mb

 

It looks like Dean will take the southern route through the Caribbean and into the Gulf.  The Yucatan peninsula looks to be an area of potential landfall in about 5 days, but that can change dramatically.  If it does take this route, Texas would probably be where Dean makes landfall in the U.S., around Thurs of next week...  Maximum winds look to increase, and by the time Dean reaches the Yucatan, he could very well be a Cat 4.  With a Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the mid to upper 80s in the Gulf currently, Dean could easily regain strength and possibly swing NW after crossing into the Gulf.  BUT....this is still a good 6 days away before Dean reaches the Gulf, so the track can and will probably change by then...

TS Dean & newly formed TS Erin

Well folks, we have another named system out in the Gulf this morning.  Tropical Storm Erin has formed and is heading for southern Texas.  I don't see this storm having too bad of an effect, but Texas has had it's share of rain...so flooding is the major concern.  3-5 inches, with some areas seeing higher amounts are possible.  Here's the stats on Erin:

 

As of 1pm:

Location:   26.0W, 93.8N

Movement:  WNW @ 12mph

Max winds:  40mph

Min pressure:  1005mb

 

Dean however is the system to be watching.  A new update for it will be out around 5pm...so I'll check up on it and post again around 6 or 7 tonight.  No more posts will be issued for Erin, as she is only forecast to stay at TS strength and is about to make landfall.

TD Four becomes Tropical Storm Dean

The tropical depression four that was out in the Atlantic has now been upgraded to a tropical storm...TS Dean. 

 

As of 5PM today:

Location:  11.6N, 41.0W.  About 1,390 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Movement:  W @ 21mph

Max winds:  40mph

Min pressure:  1004mb

 

Strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours.  By Day 5, Dean is expected to be a developed hurricane and could possibly reach major hurricane status by late this weekend.

 

The track of this storm is still uncertain due to the trough in the Atlantic.  This storm has a lot of room to grow and I'll be following it's progress over the next week or so.

Tropical Depression Four forms!

On a quick note for those interested...TD Four formed this morning in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.  Computer guidance is forecasting it to head westward around 17 knots, and most agree that within the next 2-4 days it will gain hurricane strength.  This is very likely as it will track over warm ocean waters and under an upper-level ridge.  Expect this to be our first named hurricane of the season, hurricane Dean.  As for the track of this system...currently it's forecast to head toward the southern Caribbean, but there are still uncertainties of where it may head in the next week.  More to come as this system develops further.

Welcome!

Welcome to my new blog! As you have probably read at the top, this blog is for the Virginia Tech area. I will post at
least once a day to this blog about current and future weather forecasts, along with past events. Postings won't begin
until around September 15th, as a new forecasting computer is on order and will be here by then. Let me know your
thoughts and comments about the blog, and what you'd like to hear more about, as long as it pertains to weather. Also
take note that my forecast are my own opinion and are the best abilities to figure out what may occur. For current
watches and/or warnings, listen to local broadcast media or the NWS. Some things I may post will be days, weeks or
even a year old, so don't rely on this blog for up to the minute warnings. I hope you will find my forecasts
accurate and will come back soon. Try to stay cool for the next few weeks as temps are still going to be in the 80s
and lower 90s!