Thursday, November 8, 2007
Now, taking a look at 850mb temps for this time period. There looks to be a window of about 12 hours that 5,000' temps will be below 0°C. Luckily this area is right over SW VA. The forecasting QPF is showing up to .25" of precip, equating to about 2 or three inches of possible snow, but with ground temperatures still above freezing, it likely won't stay around for long, if it does happen. The 540 line is circle around us, but PU/MO counties are right on the edge of the rain-snow line at the surface. This is still a week away, so things can change, as they have over the past 24 hours with this model. I don't expect too much from this system that swings through, but it would be nice to see some snow showers before Thanksgiving break. I'll keep everyone up to date as the week(end) progresses.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
This will have to watched as this model indicates a possibility of 2" of snow for the CWA, but we are over a week away, and any forecasting done this early is definitely going to change over the next few days.
Friday, November 2, 2007
MRF model still has a cold punch of air coming in for next Wednesday, 7-Nov, but have lengthened the time period a bit. Now, most of Tuesday may be hard pressed to get out of the 40s, along with Wednesday.
The 540 line (rain/snow line) looks to set up shop just to our Northwest, along the West Virginia/Virginia border on Tuesday morning, with some light precip falling at that time due to the cold front passage. 850mb temperatures will be below freezing. Right now, amounts look light, but some of the higher elevations, and westward-facing slopes, may crank out some snow flurries if the precip can stick around with the cold air. No accumulations though. Still a few days away though, and this model may change, although the GFS model is a little more conservative, but still brings in the cold air for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Looks like some cooler weather may be on it’s way come next week. Looking at the 10-day forecast model MRF, high temperatures aren’t expected to get out of the 40s on Wednesday, November 7th. A cold front looks to move through the area the day before, and high pressure will funnel down colder Canadian air on Wednesday. I think it’s too early to talk about snow, as it is too warm right now, and this system is still at 6.5 days away…but it won’t be long before we’re talking about the possibility of the first flakes of the season.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Also of note, the NHC has just upgraded newly formed TD 9 to TS Humberto. He looks to be a good rain-maker for most of eastern Texas over the next few days. We also have TD 8 just SE of the Lesser Antilles. This system will have to be monitored the next few days.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Sunday, September 2, 2007
You can see that most of the possibilities keep Felix in Mexico, but there are two that shift it toward Texas.
Something of another note to watch is a disturbance in the western Atlantic. If this system would develop, it may make it's way toward eastern Florida or the East Coast. We'll see what happens over the next few days. Here are the possibilities of this system:
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Thursday, August 23, 2007
This picture below shows the outflow boundary that cause some power outages in Pulaski and Montgomery counties on Tuesday. As you saw in the video, this boundary is created by the thunderstorm, then rides ahead of it, usually bringing high wind gusts before any rain falls in the area.
I'll be adding more images to my website later this evening, as I still have to get the images out of archive from the weather service and then analyze them. I'll post the link to the web page as soon as I publish it.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Thursday, August 16, 2007
As of 11pm:
Location: 14.1N, 58.7W
Movement: West @ 25mph
Max winds: 100mph
Minimum pressure: 976mb
Dean looks to continue to strengthen as he heads west through the southern Caribbean. We're expecting Dean to reach Cat 4 strength as he swings through or just south of Jamaica. Right now, Dean looks to make landfall in the Yucatan, then head out into the SW Gulf of Mexico. If for some reason, Dean just swings a little further north, a U.S. landfall will be possible, and Dean will likely grow back quickly into a major hurricane as he reaches the very warm waters of the Gulf. Tomorrow should tell the tale of where Dean will go, and we'll likely have a better idea if he will go through the Yucatan or just north of it. I'll post again tomorrow when new data and model runs come in.
This is a 3-D look at the cell. The bright pink area above the radar image is the hail core of the storm. The red area trailing the pink is the updraft and possible hail that is being held up by the storm. A later image, 5 minutes later, shows the core collapsing and falling toward the ground.
Here is another image taken of the cell. As you can see the tops on this cell were over 30,000 ft. This is what a typical single-cell thunderstorm looks like in a cross-section....this is the type of thunderstorm we see around hear and is typically referred to as a "garden-variety thunderstorm."
Although this storm wasn't located in the NRV, I thought it was interesting as it was said to have produced some very large hail for central and western Virginia.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Monday, August 13, 2007
Friday, August 10, 2007
least once a day to this blog about current and future weather forecasts, along with past events. Postings won't begin
until around September 15th, as a new forecasting computer is on order and will be here by then. Let me know your
thoughts and comments about the blog, and what you'd like to hear more about, as long as it pertains to weather. Also
take note that my forecast are my own opinion and are the best abilities to figure out what may occur. For current
watches and/or warnings, listen to local broadcast media or the NWS. Some things I may post will be days, weeks or
even a year old, so don't rely on this blog for up to the minute warnings. I hope you will find my forecasts
accurate and will come back soon. Try to stay cool for the next few weeks as temps are still going to be in the 80s
and lower 90s!