Tuesday, April 7, 2009 Forecast

It's hard to believe that the first week of April is already here and gone...wow...it won't be long until the dog days of summer. For today, expect winter-like weather and some chilly temperatures. Highs will struggle to get out of the upper 30s and lower 40s today under cloudy skies and a NW flow. I'm forecasting a high of 38 today. Winds will be breezy at times again today, so bundle up and be prepared. This cold snap should start to retreat late on Wednesday, but until then, we will have cold temperatures and gusty winds. Models are reluctant to pick up any amounts of precip from the great lakes, but just expecting some a couple snow showers as we progress through the day...nothing accumulating though.

Wednesday looks to be dry for the area. Wind will shift from the NW to the west and finally SW by Wednesday evening. Warm air will return on these southerly winds, so expecting temperatures to rise into the mid-50s tomorrow evening before sunset. Winds will also die down as we progress through the day, but expect some breezy and cool conditions to start...but we should warm up nicely with partly cloudy skies. Clouds may thicken very late on Wednesday evening and into the overnight ahead of an upper-level disturbance progged to move in from the northwest early on Thursday.

The piece of energy that's expected to arrive on Thursday will push into the CWA around 2AM. It will bring a very quick shot at some moisture, mainly for the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge and into West Virginia. Amounts will be light...generally less than .2" and the disturbance will be in the Tidewater region by daybreak Thursday morning. However, this piece of energy may be quite strong, with 700mb vertical velocities of +9 over SW VA and +10 & +11 over the mountains of SE West Virginia. With such strong upper-level divergence, the threat of some rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. Surface and 850mb temperatures are expected to be above freezing, so I don't foresee any snowfall, but maybe some gusty winds and rain showers....with an embedded t-storm or two? For the day though on Thursday, expecting a few clouds, but mostly sunshine through the afternoon. Highs will be around 64, but will range from the lower to mid-60s. Winds will be light and from the SW. Going above MOS guidance since we will be seeing some WAA and light winds, along with lower dew points.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.48' this morning as of 6:30AM Expecting no significant rise/fall of the water level over the next 3 days.