Snow next week? Maybe!

Well...if everyone is enjoying the wild cold weather, you may be in for a treat next week. After having a nice start to the workweek next week, changes may be in the works for mid-week. A shortwave low looks to develop next week and swing right over our region by Wednesday. This strong low will pull down cold air from the north just as it moves over SW Virginia. Below is the image of the 4-panel MRF view for next week, you can click on it to view the larger image:


Now, taking a look at 850mb temps for this time period. There looks to be a window of about 12 hours that 5,000' temps will be below 0°C. Luckily this area is right over SW VA. The forecasting QPF is showing up to .25" of precip, equating to about 2 or three inches of possible snow, but with ground temperatures still above freezing, it likely won't stay around for long, if it does happen. The 540 line is circle around us, but PU/MO counties are right on the edge of the rain-snow line at the surface. This is still a week away, so things can change, as they have over the past 24 hours with this model. I don't expect too much from this system that swings through, but it would be nice to see some snow showers before Thanksgiving break. I'll keep everyone up to date as the week(end) progresses.

Possibility of Snow?

The next 10 days look to be interesting for the NRV. Over the next few days, temperatures will be in the upper 40s to around 50. Precipitation looks to stay out of the area for a few days, until around Wednesday, November 14th. What's interesting is this may be a potent system, bringing cold air with it along with the precip. The current MRF model run indicates 850mb temperatures to be below freezing; around -2.0°C, along with the 540 rain-snow line to be located south of our area into Southside, VA. This sets us up with temperatures just above freezing for the event. Here is a look at the forecast date using MRF:

This will have to watched as this model indicates a possibility of 2" of snow for the CWA, but we are over a week away, and any forecasting done this early is definitely going to change over the next few days.

Next week

MRF model still has a cold punch of air coming in for next Wednesday, 7-Nov, but have lengthened the time period a bit.  Now, most of Tuesday may be hard pressed to get out of the 40s, along with Wednesday. 

 

The 540 line (rain/snow line) looks to set up shop just to our Northwest, along the West Virginia/Virginia border on Tuesday morning, with some light precip falling at that time due to the cold front passage.  850mb temperatures will be below freezing.  Right now, amounts look light, but some of the higher elevations, and westward-facing slopes, may crank out some snow flurries if the precip can stick around with the cold air.  No accumulations though.  Still a few days away though, and this model may change, although the GFS model is a little more conservative, but still brings in the cold air for Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Colder weather is possibly on it's way

Looks like some cooler weather may be on it’s way come next week.  Looking at the 10-day forecast model MRF, high temperatures aren’t expected to get out of the 40s on Wednesday, November 7^th.  A cold front looks to move through the area the day before, and high pressure will funnel down colder Canadian air on Wednesday.  I think it’s too early to talk about snow, as it is too warm right now, and this system is still at 6.5 days away…but it won’t be long before we’re talking about the possibility of the first flakes of the season.

Fall weather is here...

Well...it looks like the hottest weather of the year is over with. The next 7 to 10 days look wonderful if you like cooler weather. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70's during the days ahead, and fall back into the 50s during the night....we may see lows in the 40s this weekend. All in all, it's shaping up to be a nice week and weekend.

Also of note, the NHC has just upgraded newly formed TD 9 to TS Humberto. He looks to be a good rain-maker for most of eastern Texas over the next few days. We also have TD 8 just SE of the Lesser Antilles. This system will have to be monitored the next few days.

Last months storm in Dublin

I have finally gotten around to uploading a webpage for the Aug. 24th storm in Dublin.  You can find it here:

http://pulaskicounty.midatlanticweather.com/20070824.html

 

I found out today that the new laptop I ordered back on Aug 8 is being delayed, so it won't get here until around Sept 27th....hopefully.  By then, analysis will be much simpler and faster as it will run the program, and not just my home desktop pc...allowing me to do everything on one machine.

Cat 5 Felix

I have been watching Felix over the past couple of days...but this is very impressive. Between the 5 and 8pm updates, Felix's pressure dropped 22mb....that's very rapid for a strengthening hurricane.

Felix is now a Cat 5, and as of 8pm:

Location: 13.8N, 72.9W

Movement: WNW @ 18mph

Max winds: 165mph

Minimum pressure: 934mb

At first, the US looked to miss out on this storm altogether, but now, there is the possibility that he could swing north due to a front that is expected to make it's way across the country by mid week. If this front moves into the gulf states before Felix makes landfall in the western gulf, the front could help steer Felix into the Texan Gulf Coast. This is the question right now, but more than likely Felix will miss the US, but it isn't out of the equation totally. Here are the possible tracks:

You can see that most of the possibilities keep Felix in Mexico, but there are two that shift it toward Texas.

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Something of another note to watch is a disturbance in the western Atlantic. If this system would develop, it may make it's way toward eastern Florida or the East Coast. We'll see what happens over the next few days. Here are the possibilities of this system: