Sunday, May 10, 2009

Updates over the next few weeks...

Sorry for the lack of posting these past few days...having to do lots of things for finals and wrapping up the semester.

We've had a number of tornadoes over the past week. I'll be posting radar data about these when I get a chance, hopefully this week.

For the next 3 weeks I will not be posting forecasts for the NRV since I will be storm chasing in the Great Plains once again. I will however post images and discussions about the trip during the next few weeks.

Once again, please excuse the lack of postings these past few days and over the next three weeks.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tuesday, April 28, 2009 Forecast

Showers move into the region later tonight into tomorrow. Expect sunshine through the day today with most areas seeing the upper 70s. Winds will be lighter than yesterday, but still breezy at times through the afternoon. Dublin should reach 78 today with sunny skies.

A slight chance of showers return into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Right now, expecting the best chance of showers into the afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms will be possible and the SPC has us under a chance of just general thunderstorms. Temperatures will be slightly cooler...into the lower 70s for most areas...but we could see mid-70s if no storms roll through. It should be partly cloudy through the morning and afternoon hours under light winds.

Thursday looks to be a continuation of Wednesday...with a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon. Temperatures will be around 73 for Dublin and into Pulaski. We should have partly cloud skies to start, then mostly cloudy during the evening.

Little River at Snowville bridge is at 1.31' as of 7:30 this morning. With the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, we could see levels rise in response to heavy rain.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Monday, April 27, 2009 Forecast

Dry conditions will prevail for the next couple of least until Wednesday. For today, expect temperatures into the upper 70s to around 80 as we head into the afternoon under sunny skies. We should have a light southerly wind and that's about it.

For Tuesday, a front will be approaching the area as we move into the evening hours. We should start to see things cloud up some for the afternoon, but it still should be a mostly sunny day. Temperatures should range from 73 to 77 tomorrow with southwest winds.

The front that's expected for Tuesday night/Wednesday will cool us off slightly...but the main threat with this system is the chance for some thunderstorms and squalls. Expect the lower 70s as we go through Wednesday with the chance for some light rain and storms.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.34' as of 8:30 this morning. Expect those levels to drop slightly before we see any rain by mid-week.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Friday, April 24, 2009 UPDATE

Sorry for no weather update this morning...I work from 6AM through mid-day on Fridays. I will not be able to update the forecast over the weekend (headed out of town until Monday), so I will give a short forecast now.

Highs into the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies and a light breeze.

Slightly warmer...highs into the mid 80s for the NRV with sunny conditions. A light breeze is also possible.

Highs will be around 80 for the start of the work week it will be sunny.

I also wanted to show this radar is take from the KGSP radar in South Carolina. The storms on the radar are in west-central North Carolina. While my fiancee, Sarah, and I were sitting outside this evening we watched lighting across the southern sky....about 10 strikes per minute. I came back in and snapped this radar image showing the radar strikes and our position to the storm. I also circled the distance to the storms...right at 79 pretty impressive. This is what old-timers call "heat lightning" because of the warm temperatures we had today and no audible thunder. This isn't a type of just don't hear the thunder since sound doesn't travel as far as light does.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Thursday, April 23, 2009 Forecast

Get ready for a long period of nothing but sunshine and fair weather! The next three days there isn't going to be any weather to talk about, at least not for us. Here's a quick rundown of what to expect over the next few days:

Highs will be in the upper 60s to around 70 today. Winds will be breezy at times, but other than that...expect sunny skies and warm temperatures.

Another sunny day with abundant sunshine...highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for the NRV. Winds will be much lighter on Friday.

Low 80s is forecast for Satuday and Sunday...expect highs around 83 for everyone. Skies will be sunny and winds will be light.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.48' this morning. I do expect this level to drop over the next 7 days with no precip...river levels will be quite low by the time we do bring some rain into the region.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Wednesday, April 22, 2009 Forecast

Cloudy to start, and the chance of some rain and storms will still be present as we go throughout the day. Best upper level support is during the afternoon and overnight hours tonight, but not expecting much in the way of any measurable precip...just scatted showers at times. Winds will be out of the west today and breezy at times. Temperatures should manage to reach the mid 50s this afternoon. If we can get any sunshine, expect the upper 50s.

Tomorrow we start the clearing process and a return to warmer temperatures. We will be dry on Thursday and temperatures should reach the upper 60s...68 is the forecast high tomorrow for Dublin. Winds will be light and from the west or northwest.

Everyone gets in on some warmer temperatures by Friday evening. Places in Wisconsin should hit record highs with temperatures into the upper 80s!!! As for us, expect highs into the upper 70s to near 80 for Friday evening! It is definitely goingto be a warm weekend. Definitely bring out the shorts and t-shirts, along with the sunscreen...sunshine will prevail going into the weekend! Winds will be light Friday, but expect them to increase into Saturday and Sunday as high pressure moves from overhead to off the Carolina coast during the weekend.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Tuesday, April 21, 2009 Forecast

Expect partly sunny skies this morning but as we progress through the day the clouds will increase in coverage and a chance of rain sneaks into the region by late afternoon. Best chance for some precip is from 2PM this afternoon until 10PM tonight. Rain amounts will be light, generally less than a quarter-inch. Best upper-level support for this is during the time-frame above. Expect temperatures around 58 this afternoon for the NRV with a breeze from the west.

On Wednesday, there is the chance of a few wrap-around showers as this system makes its way off to the north and east. Best chances for this is also during the afternoon hours. Temperatures should be in the lower to mid 50s, with 54 expect for Dublin under mostly cloudy skies and a northwest wind 10-15mph.

Thursday looks to be much nicer with warmer temperatures reaching the mid to upper-60s. Skies should also improve and we should see abundant sunshine going through the day. Winds will be light and generally from the west.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.74' at 6:30 this morning. Should expect it to level off but will likely see another increase if we manage to have some rain later today and tonight.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Monday, April 20, 2009 Forecast

Showers and precip are off to the east this morning and pushing northeast. It looks like they will stay out of our area for a few hours more but I do expect some light rain to develop later today...should be light amounts though. Temperatures today should be in the mid-60s...66 for Dublin today. It will be breezy at times with a southwest wind.

Tomorrow looks to be slightly cooler, around 60 for our area. There will still be a chance of rain showers and it will be mostly cloudy again for Tuesday. Winds will also be stronger tomorrow...gusting to about 20mph at times.

On Wednesday we should start to dry out...temps will fall even further but we should stay in the mid-50s for afternoon highs. It will be mostly cloudy, but we should sneak some sunshine in. Winds look to be breezy again but not as bad as Tuesday.

Little River at Snowville bridge is at 1.32' this morning at 6:30 AM. It is on a slight rise due to the rain from yesterday and last night.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Sunday, April 19, 2009 Forecast

As expected, clouds have overtaken the region and the threat of some light rain will increase going into the afternoon. Right now, most precip is off to the west, but we may squeeze a few showers out later today after about 2PM...but only light in nature. Temperatures today should stay in the mid-60s...Dublin should hit 64° with breezy southwest winds. This goes against NAM guidance, which forecasts 72 for KPSK and 70 for KBCB...just expecting no sunshine and some light rain...we shouldn't be able to get that warm.

The best chance for rain comes early on Monday after midnight. UVV will be in the +5 range going into Monday morning. Amounts should be less than .25". Temps will be slight cooler averaging around the lower-60s....60 for the NRV tomorrow. Winds will shift to the west by the evening and will be breezy at times.

The main batch of precip moves out for Tuesday, but some wrap-around moisture may spark a few showers later on in the day. Upper level divergence is favored in the morning hours as well, so a 30% chance of showers expected on Tuesday. Highs will be in the low to mid-50s.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Thursday, April 16, 2009

First off, I want to remind everyone to take a moment to remember those lost in the shootings on campus at Virginia Tech 2 years ago today. They will never be forgotten. Long live Virginia Tech!

A beautiful sunny morning right now here in Snowville. A few light clouds, but seeing mostly sunny skies attm. Satellite loop shows clouds thinning right now, but with a convective temperature of 50°, we may see some puffy cumulus clouds start forming when we reach that point...which will probably be sometime around 10:30 this morning. With high pressure building in from the north, we will stay dry today with lots of sunshine. An interesting setup as the mountains will likely see warmer temperatures than southside today, with a surge of warm air along the spine of the Blue Ridge at 850mb at 0z. Temperatures should be able to reach the mid 60s today...and the NRV should hit 64 later today. Winds will be light and from the northeast.

High pressure settles over the area for Friday, bringing us mostly sunny skies once again. A few clouds may try to work their way in later in the afternoon/evening, but for the most part, a nice day is in store for the region. Temperatures should reach the upper 60s...possibly hitting the low 70s in Dublin...forecasting a high of 72 for them on Friday. With the high almost directly overhead, we shouldn't experience any winds.

The very slow moving system that's been over the western half of the country since 2 days ago will still be located over the Southern Plains as we go into Saturday. This is good since most of Texas and Oklahoma are in a drought situation. With the exception of a few clouds, we should stay dry and sunny through the day. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s with 74 forecast for the airport in Dublin with light winds from the west.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Wednesday, April 15, 2009 Forecast

Another cloudy day to start. Local radar is clear of any precip this morning, and most areas should stay dry today. Convergence at 700mb leads me to believe that we may see some clearing skies as we go through the day. MOS guidance says otherwise, and with thick cloud cover right now, I expect us to stay mostly cloudy today...but don't be suprised to see a few rays of sunshine on and off today. Most areas should be dry, with the highest chance for a stray shower into the mountains of West Virginia. Winds will be light today and temperatures should close in around 55° this afternoon for Dublin.

A nice day looks to be on tap for Thursday, with sunshine and rising temperatures in the afternoon. High pressure will start to make its way into our region form the north and our skies will begin to clear. Temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday with drier air filtering in and light winds. Dublin should reach 62° with higher elevations being slightly cooler. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy to start, then clearing to mostly sunny by afternoon.

The area of high pressure will settle in over our region for Friday bringing us fair weather and light winds. Skies will be clear over Thursday night and into the day on Friday. Expecting temperatures into the upper 60s during the afternoon, with mid to upper-30s to start off the day at sunrise. Winds will be light and Dublin should reach 69°.

Little River at Snowville bridge is at 1.44' this morning at 6:30AM. Expecting this height to decrease over the next 24-48 hours with little or no precip forecast over the basin.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Tuesday, April 14, 2009 Forecast

Another cloudy day with rain continuing. Expect the heaviest precip later this afternoon and into the early night-time hours. Amounts could range from .25 to .75" after all is said and done. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s today, with Dublin approaching 56 this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable.

Tomorrow looks to be somewhat similar to today...on and off rain showers will continue under mostly cloudy skies. Expect lighter amounts through the day though, as this system makes its way off to the north and east. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s once again.

Thursday we dry out and hopefully will see some sunshine. Skies will be partly cloudy to start, then turning mostly sunny later in the day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer and in the upper 50s. The end of the week looks to be nice as well and hopefully the first half of the weekend.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Monday, April 13, 2009 Forecast

Expect a mostly cloudy day today as moisture filters in from the southwest. The chance of rain will also increase as we go through the afternoon and evening hours. Some light shower activity is over then NRV counties right now and should see more showers later this evening. A tornado watch has been issued for the deep south ahead of a line of storms getting ready to move through the Florida panhandle. For today, expect overcast skies with on and off showers with amounts ranging from .10 to .25" Temperatures will be range from the upper 40s to lower 50s for us with Dublin reaching 52°. Winds will be breezy at times later this afternoon.

Another round of precip moves into the area at daybreak tomorrow. This round of energy will keep us cloudy again tomorrow as we will once again see the chance for scattered showers. Amounts should be light. Temperatures may get a bit warmer tomorrow and expecting the lower 50s.

The threat of showers will continue to be present on Wednesday. The day looks to be much cooler with temps struggling out of the upper 40s and lower 50s for most areas under a northeast wind. The higher elevations may see a few snow showers at times with 850mb temps below freezing and a little bit of wrap-around moisture as the system pulls off to the east. Expect another overcast day.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.32' as of 6:30 this morning. If more precip moves in, expect it to rise slightly over the next 24 hours.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Easter Sunday Forecast

Our area had a few clouds yesterday evening, but expect sunny conditions today. Happy Easter everyone! A Moderate Risk has been issued for southern Louisiana for this afternoon, with a 15% hatched area of tornadoes and a 30% chance of severe hail. For our area, dry conditions will prevail today and with convective temperatures in the mid-70 and upper-level convergence in place, not expecting much at all in the way of cloud cover. All-in-all, it looks to be a nice Easter Sunday for Southwest Virginia. Expect high temperatures around the area in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Dublin should reach 61°. Winds will be light.

Monday looks to start off dry, but expect a lowering of cloud cover as we go through the day. A large shield of precip will be located just to our south and west over Kentucky and Tennessee at daybreak. This moisture will spread into the area by late afternoon and the bulk of the precip will arrive around sunset and continue until around 3AM Tuesday. This coincides with 700mb Vertical Velocities overhead at 0zMon and 6zTue. As a result of this low pulling in gulf moisture and having instability and shear conditions, the Storm Prediction Center has most of the Tennessee River Valley and the Deep South under a slight risk tomorrow, with the main focus on western KY and TN to the north, and the FL panhandle and far southern AL and GA under a hatched region. For our area, expect rainfall amounts between .25 and .50" with this event. Temperatures will be hard-pressed to get out of the lower-50s tomorrow and expecting the NRV to reach 51 with mostly cloudy skies to start, turning overcast quickly through the day. Winds will be breezy at times from the south.

Expect warmer conditions on Tuesday ahead of a low-pressure system and its associated cold front. High temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will gust to 20mph at times Tuesday and should generally be from the southwest between 10 and 15mph. There will be a chance of rain showers throughout the day with only light amounts expected ATM.

Little River at Snowville is currently at 1.41' and has seen a slight increase over the past 24 hours due to some light rainfall. Expecting it to slightly drop over the next 24 hours and levels should begin to rise over the 24-48hr time-frame due to some active weather during that period.

**I apologize for the lack of forecast on Friday and Saturday mornings. I have been extremely busy and had no chance to update.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Thursday, April 9, 2009 Forecast

Clear skies to start off the day this morning, but expect some fair-weather cumulus to develop later this afternoon once temperatures reach the lower partly cloud skies today. It will be dry with southwesterly winds bringing in some warmer conditions and highs will reach the mid to upper 60s today...forecast high for Dublin is 66. This goes above MOS guidance but with warmer air advecting in later this evening, we should be able to manage at least that temperature. Winds will shift to the southwest later today as well. More clouds will filter in overnight ahead of our next rain-maker on Friday

Tomorrow looks to start off dry, but mostly cloudy. A system off to the west will be located around Missouri spreading precip to the north and northeast of the low. This low will make its way into Tennessee by 2PM, and thats when we should expect some light precip to start. However, the bulk of the energy and rainfall should hold off until very late Friday night and very early on Saturday (midnightish). Some thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon and early Friday night. (I have yet to hear any thunder this year so far...maybe this will be it). 700mb VVs in the +10 ranges are likely between 12AM and 2AM, so expecting plenty of upper-level divergence which will help generate precip. With cloudy skies and rain/drizzle hanging around Friday, temperatures will not reach their fullest potential, but am expecting the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow...Dublin should hit 62. If clouds thin and we get some sunshine, then might have to rethink those highs as we could potentially reach the upper-60s if we get lots of sunshine. But ATM, not expecting temps out of the lower 60s.

With the exception of some light wrap-around moisture early on Saturday, most areas will stay dry through the afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a northerly breeze ushering in CAA and lower temperatures. Temps will struggle to get out of the lower 50s on Saturday.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.36' as of 6:30AM this morning. No drastic change is forecast for the next 24 hours, but an increase is expect later on Friday afternoon/evening.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Wednesday, April 8, 2009 Forecast

A beautiful morning to start off the day! Satellite is showing some clouds into Kentucky and into West Virginia, but we are staying mostly sunny for the morning...and we might squeeze in a few more clouds as we go through the afternoon. Temperature is at 33.7°F right now here in Snowville. Most locations around the region are in the lower 30s as well, with light southwest winds. Everyone should stay completely dry today with mostly sunny skies and southwest winds. Temperatures should get into the mid-50s today...and with sunny skies and WAA we should hit about 56° this afternoon.

A shortwave is progged to move right over the NRV tonight around 2AM. Temperatures will be warm enough at the surface and at 850mb for this energy to spit out plain old rain, but expect a cold rain if your out and about around that time. NAM has shifted the majority of the precip to the south into the Mountain Empire, but I do expect most of the NRV to get in on this. Expect a quick round of precip with amounts ranging from .1 to .25". 700mb VVs at 2AM are more impressive than yesterday's 6z model run. The entire NRV is forecast to have +10 values with even higher amounts of +14 into the Floyd County area. This upper level divergence should aid in shower development. I'm not ruling out the possibility of a couple t-storms as well with such massive amounts of energy aloft. A few remaining upslope showers may still linger around as we reach daybreak. Thursday should be a dry day for the most part. Expect a few more clouds than today though as a system approaches from the west. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60s for Thursday afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Forecast high for Dublin is 63°. Going with a slightly warmer outlook for temperatures than the MOS outputs with light winds and WAA into the region.

April showers return to the area for Friday. Expect an overcast day with on and off rain showers. Winds will pick up during the afternoon with a strong SW flow pulling in moisture from the gulf. Areas to our south will have the best chance for thunderstorms, such as Alabama and Tennessee....but don't rule out the possibility of some stronger storms and heavy rain/gusty winds in our area. Temperatures during the afternoon should be sufficient to destabilize the atmosphere and increase our chances of thunderstorms. The best chances of storms will be during the late afternoon and evening/overnight time frame. Temperatures should reach the mid-60s.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Tuesday, April 7, 2009 Forecast

It's hard to believe that the first week of April is already here and won't be long until the dog days of summer. For today, expect winter-like weather and some chilly temperatures. Highs will struggle to get out of the upper 30s and lower 40s today under cloudy skies and a NW flow. I'm forecasting a high of 38 today. Winds will be breezy at times again today, so bundle up and be prepared. This cold snap should start to retreat late on Wednesday, but until then, we will have cold temperatures and gusty winds. Models are reluctant to pick up any amounts of precip from the great lakes, but just expecting some a couple snow showers as we progress through the day...nothing accumulating though.

Wednesday looks to be dry for the area. Wind will shift from the NW to the west and finally SW by Wednesday evening. Warm air will return on these southerly winds, so expecting temperatures to rise into the mid-50s tomorrow evening before sunset. Winds will also die down as we progress through the day, but expect some breezy and cool conditions to start...but we should warm up nicely with partly cloudy skies. Clouds may thicken very late on Wednesday evening and into the overnight ahead of an upper-level disturbance progged to move in from the northwest early on Thursday.

The piece of energy that's expected to arrive on Thursday will push into the CWA around 2AM. It will bring a very quick shot at some moisture, mainly for the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge and into West Virginia. Amounts will be light...generally less than .2" and the disturbance will be in the Tidewater region by daybreak Thursday morning. However, this piece of energy may be quite strong, with 700mb vertical velocities of +9 over SW VA and +10 & +11 over the mountains of SE West Virginia. With such strong upper-level divergence, the threat of some rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. Surface and 850mb temperatures are expected to be above freezing, so I don't foresee any snowfall, but maybe some gusty winds and rain showers....with an embedded t-storm or two? For the day though on Thursday, expecting a few clouds, but mostly sunshine through the afternoon. Highs will be around 64, but will range from the lower to mid-60s. Winds will be light and from the SW. Going above MOS guidance since we will be seeing some WAA and light winds, along with lower dew points.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.48' this morning as of 6:30AM Expecting no significant rise/fall of the water level over the next 3 days.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Monday, April 6, 2009 Forecast

A strong pressure gradient exists this morning as we have high pressure trying to move in and low pressure departing. This quick pressure change will mean very strong winds for us today through the afternoon hours. Satellite shows a dry slot over Tennessee and this might make it into our region this afternoon to bring us partly sunny skies. The front that is progged to move through this morning is falling apart as it is forced up the mountains to our only expect light showers with this event. We are sitting at 48.2°F right now in Snowville, exactly as predicted yesterday. However, with cold air advection from the northwest, I don't foresee us rising above 50° as it is only going to get cooler as the day progresses. Winds will be very breezy at times this afternoon and overnight, with advisories possibly needed for the overnight and early tomorrow morning. But for today...mostly cloudy skies to start, with some breaks of sun this afternoon/evening. Temperatures will range from the low to mid-40s with strong NW winds. I expect the NRV to stay around 45° today. There is the possibility of temperatures falling below 32° tonight.

Moisture moves out for Tuesday, but cold air will still be locked in place. With winds gusting to over 30mph tomorrow and CAA taking place, don't foresee temperatures rising out of the mid to upper 30s the forecast high for the NRV is around 38°. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with very minimal chances of seeing any snowflakes, unless you head into the mountains of WV. The main focus will be the cold air and gusty winds. Those with outdoor plants or crops should be prepared for freezing conditions on Tuesday night with some of the coldest air of the spring season so far this year.

For Wednesday, we should see mostly sunny skies with no precip forecast over the area. Winds will decrease through the day and a more westerly flow will set up, which should start bringing us back to around normal for the latter half of the week. Right now, expecting temperatures to reach the mid to 50s on Wednesday.

Little River at Snowville is at 1.52' this morning at 6:30AM.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Sunday, April 5, 2009 Forecast

Sunny skies have finally arrived! We're sitting at 55°F this morning here in Snowville under mostly sunny skies with a light wind. Today should be an all-around nice day with the only concern for some breezy winds and some high, then cirrus clouds filtering into the region. Expect contrails from any high-flying jets to be somewhat elongated as there is some moisture present at 300mb, which will allow contrails to be present for some time before they are finally evaporated. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day, with high temperatures expect to climb into the lower to mid-70s. As previous mentioned, winds will be breezy at times from the southwest. 850mb temps suggest highs into the mid-70s for our area, so will go with a forecast high of 73 for the NRV since we are seeing all sun today under a SW flow.

The forecast gets a little tricky starting early Monday morning right around day-break. A system off to the west into the Ohio Valley looks to bring the chance of rain back into the region, but should be a quick shot at some moisture from around 6AM to 1PM. Right now, very warm air ahead of the front will allow for some rain and possibly a t-storm or two early Monday morning. Skies will cloud over for the beginning of the day. By early and late afternoon this system will race northeast and wrap-around moisture will still be present in the higher elevations and Blue Ridge. Concern in this forecast period is the chance for some snow showers with the wrap-around moisture. 850mb temps show a very profound gradient to warm/cold air sectors of this system, so temps will really start to fall during the afternoon. I expect the high temperature to be reached during the morning hours on Monday. By 2PM, the western sections of the NRV should be cold enough to support snow showers, but most of this moisture should be confined to the Mountain Empire and southeast WV...but there is the chance we may see some snow flurries/showers as we progress through the day on Monday and into Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect clouds to thin and a return to partly sunny skies on Monday evening, with very gusty winds just like on Friday. Temperatures will be in the upper-40s to start off the day, but expect those values to drop to the upper 30s and lower 40's by evening under a NW flow.

Tuesday looks to be the coolest day we've seen since winter, with highs only into the mid to upper 30s. Winds will be breezy again for Tuesday from the WNW. As high pressure tries to move in from Texas, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of some snow flurries filtering in over the mountains of WV. Right now, not expecting anything in the way of accumulating snowfall from Monday evening into the Tuesday/Wednesday time-frame...but we will be returning to winter-like temperatures and there is the threat of some frost/freeze conditions Monday night and Tuesday night.

Little River at Snowville is currently at 1.65' as of 6:30 this morning and I expect levels to fall to around 1.5' over the next 24 hours.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Saturday, April 4, 2009 Forecast

Expect windy conditions for most of the day today...highs will be in the lower 60s today under sunny skies. Winds will be from the west between 15 and 20mph.

Tomorrow looks even more beautiful...highs will be in the upper 60s, maybe even 70 degrees tomorrow evening. Skies will be sunny during the morning, but turning partly cloudy in the afternoon. Winds will be light to moderate, with some breezy conditions expected.

Our next shot at precip comes on Monday. Rain will develop early Monday before daybreak and stick around through the day. It looks to be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid-50s. Some possibility of some snow flurries and showers on Monday night into Tuesday.

Little River at Snowville is up to 1.97' at 10:30 this morning. A crest of 2.26' was reached at midnight last night due to the precipitation over the past couple of days. Levels will lessen through the upcoming week.

**Sorry for the shortness of this discussion and it's delay. I am having problems extracting data automatically from the web with the software I am using. I hope to have things back to normal tomorrow morning.**

Friday, April 3, 2009

Friday, April 3, 2009 Forecast


Another rainy day for our area...showers are spreading eastward this morning, with heavier downpours in and around the greater NRV area right now. These heavier showers will slide eastward through 8AM, but the major energy with this system should start to wrap up by afternoon. Expect some sun with isolated showers/storms through the evening...precip estimates through 2PM between .25 and .50". Temperatures will be in the mid 50s today. Winds will increase through the day today and overnight and gusts could reach 55mph. With saturated ground from rain the past few days, it won't take much to topple trees and bring down power expect a few power outages later this evening.

Saturday looks much nicer as all of the rain and showers moves out and sunny skies return. Temperatures will also be slightly warmer with highs expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s. It will be extremely windy tomorrow morning and through the day with gusts above 30mph.

With southwest winds and sunny skies on Sunday, temperatures will go way up... into the upper 60s and lower 70s! Don't expect any precip on Sunday, but a system will be moving closer to the area and may bring some cloudiness late on Sunday and some showers will return on Monday.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Thursday, April 2, 2009 Forecast

...Dense fog advisory in effect until 9AM EDT this morning...

Currently sitting at 48°F here in Snowville with foggy conditions. Today, southeast winds will keep us mostly cloudy with the chance of drizzle and rain on and off throughout the day. Total estimated precip for today: <.10". Moisture from the Atlantic will keep us locked in with clouds, so don't expect a big rise in temperatures. NAM model is indicating highs in the upper 60s, but with clouds and the chance of precip through the day, I'm dropping those numbers to the lower 60s...around 61 today. The model is also hinting at the possibility of some upper-level convergence at 700mb, which would bring clearing skies, around 2PM this afternoon. I'm having trouble accepting this with us under SE flow, so I'm keeping the skies cloudy through the day.

Overnight and during the morning hours Friday are the favored time-frames for precip to move in to Southwest Virginia. From midnight tonight until 9AM Friday, our area could pick up between .25" and .50" of rainfall. After lunchtime tomorrow, most areas should clear of any remaining precip as the system exits our region to the north. Winds will be breezy and out of the southwest tomorrow, switching to the northwest in the evening hours and skies should be cloudy during the morning, then becoming partly cloudy in the late afternoon/evening. Tomorrow will again be cooler, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

High pressure moves in for Saturday, which should provide us with sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Expect a cool start to the day, but temperatures should rebound nicely to the mid 60s for most locations...the NRV should hit 64. Northwest flow will be breezy at times, and it will prevent any further warming on the day Saturday, but the later-half of the weekend looks to be the warmest.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Wednesday, April 1, 2009 Forecast UPDATE

A line of showers is located along the Blue Ridge from southeast of Hillsville in Carroll County through Floyd and southern Roanoke counties. These showers should begin to dissipate and move further eastward over the next 2 hours.

The edge of our cloudiness is over far Southwestern Virginia into Russell and Scott counties. It may take until late evening before clouds start to break across the NRV...but should see a nice sunset for tonight. Until then...expect mostly cloudy skies with SSW winds.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009 Forecast

Happy first day of April to everyone! As the saying goes, "April showers bring May flowers" and we're going to be experiencing those showers throughout the day today. Right now, scattered showers are located all across SE West Virginia with heavier bands of rain into the eastern portions of the CWA around Lexington nad Amherst. So far, most areas have received around .15" of precip this morning and I expect the rain to continue as scattered showers through the morning hours. Our winds will be breezy from the SW. Most precip should be out of the NRV by mid-afternoon...say after 2PM with the passage of the cold front. Scattered T-storms are not out of the question as we go through the afternoon. We may even see some sun later this evening. With cloudiness and rain, expect temperatures to reach the upper 50's to lower 60's this afternoon...61 is my forecast for the NRV under mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon, with partly to mostly sunny skies this evening.

The chance of precip will be on the rise as we go through the early morning and afternoon on Thursday. There is a Moderate risk of severe storms over portions of deep south, including the states of Mississippi and Alabama/western Georgia. By Thursday evening, portions of the Blue Ridge will likely experience some rainfall as a surface low moves northeastward out of ArkLaTex region and funnels precip northward into the south and mid-Atlantic. Most areas will be under mostly cloudy skies with on and off drizzle as we have breezy SE wind banking up against the mountains...but some breaks of sun are possible during the midday. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, with a good return of warm air from the south. Expect the lower to mid-60's Thursday afternoon...with a forecast high of 62.

Rain will continue overnight Thursday night and into Friday morning as the associated cold front and low make their way through the Ohio Valley and to the NE. Precip should be out of the area by afternoon/evening hours on Friday, but expect a good coverage of rain during the morning hours as upper-level divergence at 700mb will likely enhance rainfall. Temperatures will cool down slightly on Friday, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and our winds will be breezy again from the WSW. Our high for the day may be reached early in the day so expect warmer temperatures in the morning hours and slightly cooler temps in the evening.

Little River at Snowville bridge is at 1.42 feet at 6:30 AM this morning. It has been falling slightly since Sunday afternoon.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tuesday, March 31, 2009 Forecast

Clear skies currently here in Snowville with a chilly temperature of 27.1°F. At 2:30AM, Little River at Snowville was at 1.51 feet, which is slightly lower than the height of 1.64 feet on Sunday at 2AM. One area of high pressure is currently located off the SE Coast, while we have another high over New England this morning. A strong cold front is out over the eastern Great Plains with its associated low over Nebraska. This system may bring severe storms and flash flooding to the Gulf Coast states, and will likely provide the High Plains and Minnesota with heavy snow today.

None of that to worry about for us today though. Our area shouldn't have to deal with any precip until after midnight tonight, but expect some clouds to develop later this afternoon/evening as the cold front starts to approach from the west. Cloud cover is currently stationed over much of Kentucky and Tennessee, so it shouldn't take too long for that to arrive into our area. For today, expect clear skies early this morning, then a transition to partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. Later this evening, should start seeing things become more overcast with the onset of precip tonight. With some nice sunshine and light southerly winds, temperatures should rise into the lower to lower 60's guess is to around 62....but if cloud cover rapidly moves in early this morning, don't expect it to get above that...

Rain will try to move into the region late tonight and early on the day Wednesday. Current model output is predicting around .2" and I will stick with that assumption. So, expect to wake up to mostly cloudy skies and some possible light showers Wednesday morning, as well as a SW breeze. The rain should be gone by around 2PM, but not expecting a great deal of sunshine to return...we should have cloudy skies Wednesday as the cold front starts to stale along the Carolinas and SE Coast after it's passage. With rain-cooled air and cloudy skies, the highs should range from the mid to upper around 58°.

Still a chance of some light showers and drizzle on Thursday morning with light SE winds. Keeping a chance of rain/drizzle in the forecast all day for Thursday as we bring in moisture and the area is under some divergence aloft at 10,000'. Temperatures on Thursday should be in the upper 50's, but we may get into the mid-60s if we see some sunshine in the afternoon. Our next weather maker will be situated over southern Missouri on Thursday evening and will arrive on Friday.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Monday, March 30, 2009 Forecast

Partly sunny skies here in Snowville this morning with a NW breeze and temperatures in the upper 30s. Our low over night was around 32°F with a few snow flurries. Strong W to NW wings will continue through the morning hours as a upper level low over the Great Lakes pushes northeastward. Satellite shows the mountains locked in cloud cover with areas to the east seeing more sunshine this morning. High pressure is over the great state of Tennessee this morning and will likely try to push toward the Carolinas today. An upper level disturbance is responsible for our cloud cover this morning...expect the cloud cover to dissipate somewhat as we go through the day, but we will continue to have partly to mostly cloudy skies on-and-off through the forecast period. All areas will stay dry today with highes around 55...and it will be breezy through early evening. NAM model has us a bit warmer, but with some cloud cover and NW winds through most of the day...went with slightly cooler conditions.

Tuesday should be fairly nice with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s with SE winds. Skies will be partly cloudy and with the excpetion of a few stray showers into the mountains of North Carolina, our region will stay dry. Both major forecast models have the CWA locked in a cool-air wedge on Tuesday evening...but if that wedge would erode early, then temperatures could climb into the upper 60s. Will stick with the forecasted highs for now...but may have to make some adjustmets later today or during the full forecast disussion tomorrow morning.

Precip will move into the area on Wednesday morning as a frontal system swings through. This should be a fast-moving system and all the rain should be out of our region by Wednesday evening. Temperatures may climb into the lower 60's ahead of this cold front, but don't expect a cool-down after its passage....if anything, temperatures look to be quite nice for the later half of the week. With warm temperatures, could possibly see an isolated t-storm or two aroung the area, as upper level divergence should provide an enhanced area of lift over SW VA from midday through the afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals from this evening should be light...right now estimating around .2" give or take.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Sunday, March 29, 2009 Forecast


A few storms are in WV right now, but should not affect our region as they head NE. Areas north and east of Lewisburg, WV could hear a rumble of thunder or some heavier rain through 10:30 this morning. Expect some gusty breezes today as high pressure tries to build in from the west. Skies are partly to mostly sunny here in Snowville and throughout the CWA. Drier pockets of air, resulting in clearing skies, are trying to appear in far SW Virginia and a dry slot is working its way up from the gulf coast through Georgia and may provide us with mostly sunny skies later this afternoon. Expecting no precipitation today, but the higher elevations of WV, especially the WV/VA border counties could see some snow flurries or snow showers as we progress through the evening hours. 850mb temps will be below 0°C from 8PM this evenign until after daybreak Monday morning. We will most likely reach our high temperature for the day this morning as cold air will soon be wrapping around yesterday's rain-maker.

Monday looks to be nice, although it will start off chilly. Expect windy conditions Monday morning on a NW flow. Winds will quickly turn out of the SW and bring warming temperatures Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Upper-level divergence may provide the area with partly cloudy skies Monday and Tuesday as well. With only the expection to a few mountain snow flurries into WV during the morning, most areas should stay dry. Temperatures will range from 52 to 58 degrees around the region.

Winds should decrease as we work our way into Tuesday with increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system to our southwest. The mountains will stay cooler than other parts of the CWA. Expect the NRV and higher elevations to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday with possible mid to upper 60s for southside. Our area may see the mid 60s if we can provide enough sunshine. The next cold front should start to push into our region on Wednesday.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Saturday, March 28, 2009 Forecast UPDATE

Rain has developed over the Blacksburg County Warning Area and is spreading NE rapidly. Expect up to .2" in some locations in the NRV. Right now, a line of heavier precip is stretching SW to NE from the Wythe/Smith county line through Pulaski and Montgomery counties and into Criag county. This is the trailing edge of the rainfall and should move out of the NRV by 7 PM.

Expecting more precip to move into the area overnight, with a few embeded T-storms, so producing heavy rain and gusty winds.

Forecast update - 3-28-2009

Radar is completely clear of any major precip at the moment, but expecting that to change as we go through the day. Currently it's 47.1° in Snowville with dense fog. Showers will move in from the SW late this morning and into the afternoon/evening timeframe...areas along the Blue Ridge (eastern slopes) will most likely see the heaviest amounts, with SE winds banking up against the mountain range. Latest model guidance at 6z (2AM) indicates around .25" total precip through Sunday afternoon. Expecting the SE winds at 850mb to transport more moisture than this and am going with a total precip amounts of .50" in the NRV with the higher mountains seeing possible .75" to 1-inch in some locations. With the ground already saturated, any t-storms that do form and produce the amounts below within the given timeframe could potential cause some flooding issues.

Flash Flood Guidance for Pulaski County:
1hr: .8"
3hr: 1.4"
12hr: 2.0"

Upper level dynamics will be in place late this afternoon through midday Sunday, with the strongest potential for T-storms SAT evening/night timeframe. If storms do form, isolated areas could see more in the way of precip totals, but deep convection should be limited to the SE US. The SPC has far SW VA and southern & SE VA under a slight risk for severe storms, but not seeing too much potential for this, only for southside and eastern VA.

Precip should be out of the CWA by late on Sunday, but a cold NW flow will develop and could provide the highest elevations with some snow showers with everyone else seeing possibly some flurries....that's right. No accumulations, but a chance of some white precip. Temps will of course be cooler on Sunday into early Monday with highes not getting out of the 40's

We should start to clear skies by Sunday evening into Monday. Temperatures will try to rebound on Monday as our current wx maker moves out of here and to the NE. Upper-level winds will be from the NW, so I'm not expecting too much of a warmup for Monday afternoon.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of my 3-day forecast, as a high pressure region funnels warm air into the CWA from the SW. Expect temperatures to warm into the lower 60s for most locations. Another storm system looks to affect our region later next week as it moves in from the Great Plains.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Monday, March 23, 2009 Forecast

I'm forecasting high's this afternoon for SWVA to be in the mid 60's with abundant sunshine. Winds will be light and from the south with high pressure situated off the SC coast.

Tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny, but slightly cooler with a high around 59. Winds will be light from the W around 5mph.

Expect cooler temps and some precip on Wednesday afternoon with a high around 48. A cold front will move in from the west with rain amounts around .2" by Thursday.