Sunday, April 12, 2009

Easter Sunday Forecast

Our area had a few clouds yesterday evening, but expect sunny conditions today. Happy Easter everyone! A Moderate Risk has been issued for southern Louisiana for this afternoon, with a 15% hatched area of tornadoes and a 30% chance of severe hail. For our area, dry conditions will prevail today and with convective temperatures in the mid-70 and upper-level convergence in place, not expecting much at all in the way of cloud cover. All-in-all, it looks to be a nice Easter Sunday for Southwest Virginia. Expect high temperatures around the area in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Dublin should reach 61°. Winds will be light.

Monday looks to start off dry, but expect a lowering of cloud cover as we go through the day. A large shield of precip will be located just to our south and west over Kentucky and Tennessee at daybreak. This moisture will spread into the area by late afternoon and the bulk of the precip will arrive around sunset and continue until around 3AM Tuesday. This coincides with 700mb Vertical Velocities overhead at 0zMon and 6zTue. As a result of this low pulling in gulf moisture and having instability and shear conditions, the Storm Prediction Center has most of the Tennessee River Valley and the Deep South under a slight risk tomorrow, with the main focus on western KY and TN to the north, and the FL panhandle and far southern AL and GA under a hatched region. For our area, expect rainfall amounts between .25 and .50" with this event. Temperatures will be hard-pressed to get out of the lower-50s tomorrow and expecting the NRV to reach 51 with mostly cloudy skies to start, turning overcast quickly through the day. Winds will be breezy at times from the south.

Expect warmer conditions on Tuesday ahead of a low-pressure system and its associated cold front. High temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will gust to 20mph at times Tuesday and should generally be from the southwest between 10 and 15mph. There will be a chance of rain showers throughout the day with only light amounts expected ATM.

Little River at Snowville is currently at 1.41' and has seen a slight increase over the past 24 hours due to some light rainfall. Expecting it to slightly drop over the next 24 hours and levels should begin to rise over the 24-48hr time-frame due to some active weather during that period.

**I apologize for the lack of forecast on Friday and Saturday mornings. I have been extremely busy and had no chance to update.

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