Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Wednesday, April 8, 2009 Forecast

A beautiful morning to start off the day! Satellite is showing some clouds into Kentucky and into West Virginia, but we are staying mostly sunny for the morning...and we might squeeze in a few more clouds as we go through the afternoon. Temperature is at 33.7°F right now here in Snowville. Most locations around the region are in the lower 30s as well, with light southwest winds. Everyone should stay completely dry today with mostly sunny skies and southwest winds. Temperatures should get into the mid-50s today...and with sunny skies and WAA we should hit about 56° this afternoon.

A shortwave is progged to move right over the NRV tonight around 2AM. Temperatures will be warm enough at the surface and at 850mb for this energy to spit out plain old rain, but expect a cold rain if your out and about around that time. NAM has shifted the majority of the precip to the south into the Mountain Empire, but I do expect most of the NRV to get in on this. Expect a quick round of precip with amounts ranging from .1 to .25". 700mb VVs at 2AM are more impressive than yesterday's 6z model run. The entire NRV is forecast to have +10 values with even higher amounts of +14 into the Floyd County area. This upper level divergence should aid in shower development. I'm not ruling out the possibility of a couple t-storms as well with such massive amounts of energy aloft. A few remaining upslope showers may still linger around as we reach daybreak. Thursday should be a dry day for the most part. Expect a few more clouds than today though as a system approaches from the west. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60s for Thursday afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Forecast high for Dublin is 63°. Going with a slightly warmer outlook for temperatures than the MOS outputs with light winds and WAA into the region.

April showers return to the area for Friday. Expect an overcast day with on and off rain showers. Winds will pick up during the afternoon with a strong SW flow pulling in moisture from the gulf. Areas to our south will have the best chance for thunderstorms, such as Alabama and Tennessee....but don't rule out the possibility of some stronger storms and heavy rain/gusty winds in our area. Temperatures during the afternoon should be sufficient to destabilize the atmosphere and increase our chances of thunderstorms. The best chances of storms will be during the late afternoon and evening/overnight time frame. Temperatures should reach the mid-60s.

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