Sunday, April 5, 2009

Sunday, April 5, 2009 Forecast

Sunny skies have finally arrived! We're sitting at 55°F this morning here in Snowville under mostly sunny skies with a light wind. Today should be an all-around nice day with the only concern for some breezy winds and some high, then cirrus clouds filtering into the region. Expect contrails from any high-flying jets to be somewhat elongated as there is some moisture present at 300mb, which will allow contrails to be present for some time before they are finally evaporated. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day, with high temperatures expect to climb into the lower to mid-70s. As previous mentioned, winds will be breezy at times from the southwest. 850mb temps suggest highs into the mid-70s for our area, so will go with a forecast high of 73 for the NRV since we are seeing all sun today under a SW flow.

The forecast gets a little tricky starting early Monday morning right around day-break. A system off to the west into the Ohio Valley looks to bring the chance of rain back into the region, but should be a quick shot at some moisture from around 6AM to 1PM. Right now, very warm air ahead of the front will allow for some rain and possibly a t-storm or two early Monday morning. Skies will cloud over for the beginning of the day. By early and late afternoon this system will race northeast and wrap-around moisture will still be present in the higher elevations and Blue Ridge. Concern in this forecast period is the chance for some snow showers with the wrap-around moisture. 850mb temps show a very profound gradient to warm/cold air sectors of this system, so temps will really start to fall during the afternoon. I expect the high temperature to be reached during the morning hours on Monday. By 2PM, the western sections of the NRV should be cold enough to support snow showers, but most of this moisture should be confined to the Mountain Empire and southeast WV...but there is the chance we may see some snow flurries/showers as we progress through the day on Monday and into Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect clouds to thin and a return to partly sunny skies on Monday evening, with very gusty winds just like on Friday. Temperatures will be in the upper-40s to start off the day, but expect those values to drop to the upper 30s and lower 40's by evening under a NW flow.

Tuesday looks to be the coolest day we've seen since winter, with highs only into the mid to upper 30s. Winds will be breezy again for Tuesday from the WNW. As high pressure tries to move in from Texas, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of some snow flurries filtering in over the mountains of WV. Right now, not expecting anything in the way of accumulating snowfall from Monday evening into the Tuesday/Wednesday time-frame...but we will be returning to winter-like temperatures and there is the threat of some frost/freeze conditions Monday night and Tuesday night.

Little River at Snowville is currently at 1.65' as of 6:30 this morning and I expect levels to fall to around 1.5' over the next 24 hours.

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