Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tuesday, March 31, 2009 Forecast

Clear skies currently here in Snowville with a chilly temperature of 27.1°F. At 2:30AM, Little River at Snowville was at 1.51 feet, which is slightly lower than the height of 1.64 feet on Sunday at 2AM. One area of high pressure is currently located off the SE Coast, while we have another high over New England this morning. A strong cold front is out over the eastern Great Plains with its associated low over Nebraska. This system may bring severe storms and flash flooding to the Gulf Coast states, and will likely provide the High Plains and Minnesota with heavy snow today.

None of that to worry about for us today though. Our area shouldn't have to deal with any precip until after midnight tonight, but expect some clouds to develop later this afternoon/evening as the cold front starts to approach from the west. Cloud cover is currently stationed over much of Kentucky and Tennessee, so it shouldn't take too long for that to arrive into our area. For today, expect clear skies early this morning, then a transition to partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. Later this evening, should start seeing things become more overcast with the onset of precip tonight. With some nice sunshine and light southerly winds, temperatures should rise into the lower to lower 60's today...my guess is to around 62....but if cloud cover rapidly moves in early this morning, don't expect it to get above that...

Rain will try to move into the region late tonight and early on the day Wednesday. Current model output is predicting around .2" and I will stick with that assumption. So, expect to wake up to mostly cloudy skies and some possible light showers Wednesday morning, as well as a SW breeze. The rain should be gone by around 2PM, but not expecting a great deal of sunshine to return...we should have cloudy skies Wednesday as the cold front starts to stale along the Carolinas and SE Coast after it's passage. With rain-cooled air and cloudy skies, the highs should range from the mid to upper 50s...so around 58°.

Still a chance of some light showers and drizzle on Thursday morning with light SE winds. Keeping a chance of rain/drizzle in the forecast all day for Thursday as we bring in moisture and the area is under some divergence aloft at 10,000'. Temperatures on Thursday should be in the upper 50's, but we may get into the mid-60s if we see some sunshine in the afternoon. Our next weather maker will be situated over southern Missouri on Thursday evening and will arrive on Friday.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Monday, March 30, 2009 Forecast

Partly sunny skies here in Snowville this morning with a NW breeze and temperatures in the upper 30s. Our low over night was around 32°F with a few snow flurries. Strong W to NW wings will continue through the morning hours as a upper level low over the Great Lakes pushes northeastward. Satellite shows the mountains locked in cloud cover with areas to the east seeing more sunshine this morning. High pressure is over the great state of Tennessee this morning and will likely try to push toward the Carolinas today. An upper level disturbance is responsible for our cloud cover this morning...expect the cloud cover to dissipate somewhat as we go through the day, but we will continue to have partly to mostly cloudy skies on-and-off through the forecast period. All areas will stay dry today with highes around 55...and it will be breezy through early evening. NAM model has us a bit warmer, but with some cloud cover and NW winds through most of the day...went with slightly cooler conditions.

Tuesday should be fairly nice with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s with SE winds. Skies will be partly cloudy and with the excpetion of a few stray showers into the mountains of North Carolina, our region will stay dry. Both major forecast models have the CWA locked in a cool-air wedge on Tuesday evening...but if that wedge would erode early, then temperatures could climb into the upper 60s. Will stick with the forecasted highs for now...but may have to make some adjustmets later today or during the full forecast disussion tomorrow morning.

Precip will move into the area on Wednesday morning as a frontal system swings through. This should be a fast-moving system and all the rain should be out of our region by Wednesday evening. Temperatures may climb into the lower 60's ahead of this cold front, but don't expect a cool-down after its passage....if anything, temperatures look to be quite nice for the later half of the week. With warm temperatures, could possibly see an isolated t-storm or two aroung the area, as upper level divergence should provide an enhanced area of lift over SW VA from midday through the afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals from this evening should be light...right now estimating around .2" give or take.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Sunday, March 29, 2009 Forecast


A few storms are in WV right now, but should not affect our region as they head NE. Areas north and east of Lewisburg, WV could hear a rumble of thunder or some heavier rain through 10:30 this morning. Expect some gusty breezes today as high pressure tries to build in from the west. Skies are partly to mostly sunny here in Snowville and throughout the CWA. Drier pockets of air, resulting in clearing skies, are trying to appear in far SW Virginia and a dry slot is working its way up from the gulf coast through Georgia and may provide us with mostly sunny skies later this afternoon. Expecting no precipitation today, but the higher elevations of WV, especially the WV/VA border counties could see some snow flurries or snow showers as we progress through the evening hours. 850mb temps will be below 0°C from 8PM this evenign until after daybreak Monday morning. We will most likely reach our high temperature for the day this morning as cold air will soon be wrapping around yesterday's rain-maker.

Monday looks to be nice, although it will start off chilly. Expect windy conditions Monday morning on a NW flow. Winds will quickly turn out of the SW and bring warming temperatures Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Upper-level divergence may provide the area with partly cloudy skies Monday and Tuesday as well. With only the expection to a few mountain snow flurries into WV during the morning, most areas should stay dry. Temperatures will range from 52 to 58 degrees around the region.

Winds should decrease as we work our way into Tuesday with increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system to our southwest. The mountains will stay cooler than other parts of the CWA. Expect the NRV and higher elevations to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday with possible mid to upper 60s for southside. Our area may see the mid 60s if we can provide enough sunshine. The next cold front should start to push into our region on Wednesday.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Saturday, March 28, 2009 Forecast UPDATE

Rain has developed over the Blacksburg County Warning Area and is spreading NE rapidly. Expect up to .2" in some locations in the NRV. Right now, a line of heavier precip is stretching SW to NE from the Wythe/Smith county line through Pulaski and Montgomery counties and into Criag county. This is the trailing edge of the rainfall and should move out of the NRV by 7 PM.

Expecting more precip to move into the area overnight, with a few embeded T-storms, so producing heavy rain and gusty winds.

Forecast update - 3-28-2009

Radar is completely clear of any major precip at the moment, but expecting that to change as we go through the day. Currently it's 47.1° in Snowville with dense fog. Showers will move in from the SW late this morning and into the afternoon/evening timeframe...areas along the Blue Ridge (eastern slopes) will most likely see the heaviest amounts, with SE winds banking up against the mountain range. Latest model guidance at 6z (2AM) indicates around .25" total precip through Sunday afternoon. Expecting the SE winds at 850mb to transport more moisture than this and am going with a total precip amounts of .50" in the NRV with the higher mountains seeing possible .75" to 1-inch in some locations. With the ground already saturated, any t-storms that do form and produce the amounts below within the given timeframe could potential cause some flooding issues.

Flash Flood Guidance for Pulaski County:
1hr: .8"
3hr: 1.4"
12hr: 2.0"

Upper level dynamics will be in place late this afternoon through midday Sunday, with the strongest potential for T-storms SAT evening/night timeframe. If storms do form, isolated areas could see more in the way of precip totals, but deep convection should be limited to the SE US. The SPC has far SW VA and southern & SE VA under a slight risk for severe storms, but not seeing too much potential for this, only for southside and eastern VA.

Precip should be out of the CWA by late on Sunday, but a cold NW flow will develop and could provide the highest elevations with some snow showers with everyone else seeing possibly some flurries....that's right. No accumulations, but a chance of some white precip. Temps will of course be cooler on Sunday into early Monday with highes not getting out of the 40's

We should start to clear skies by Sunday evening into Monday. Temperatures will try to rebound on Monday as our current wx maker moves out of here and to the NE. Upper-level winds will be from the NW, so I'm not expecting too much of a warmup for Monday afternoon.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of my 3-day forecast, as a high pressure region funnels warm air into the CWA from the SW. Expect temperatures to warm into the lower 60s for most locations. Another storm system looks to affect our region later next week as it moves in from the Great Plains.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Monday, March 23, 2009 Forecast

I'm forecasting high's this afternoon for SWVA to be in the mid 60's with abundant sunshine. Winds will be light and from the south with high pressure situated off the SC coast.

Tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny, but slightly cooler with a high around 59. Winds will be light from the W around 5mph.

Expect cooler temps and some precip on Wednesday afternoon with a high around 48. A cold front will move in from the west with rain amounts around .2" by Thursday.