Saturday, March 28, 2009

Forecast update - 3-28-2009

Radar is completely clear of any major precip at the moment, but expecting that to change as we go through the day. Currently it's 47.1° in Snowville with dense fog. Showers will move in from the SW late this morning and into the afternoon/evening timeframe...areas along the Blue Ridge (eastern slopes) will most likely see the heaviest amounts, with SE winds banking up against the mountain range. Latest model guidance at 6z (2AM) indicates around .25" total precip through Sunday afternoon. Expecting the SE winds at 850mb to transport more moisture than this and am going with a total precip amounts of .50" in the NRV with the higher mountains seeing possible .75" to 1-inch in some locations. With the ground already saturated, any t-storms that do form and produce the amounts below within the given timeframe could potential cause some flooding issues.

Flash Flood Guidance for Pulaski County:
1hr: .8"
3hr: 1.4"
12hr: 2.0"

Upper level dynamics will be in place late this afternoon through midday Sunday, with the strongest potential for T-storms SAT evening/night timeframe. If storms do form, isolated areas could see more in the way of precip totals, but deep convection should be limited to the SE US. The SPC has far SW VA and southern & SE VA under a slight risk for severe storms, but not seeing too much potential for this, only for southside and eastern VA.

Precip should be out of the CWA by late on Sunday, but a cold NW flow will develop and could provide the highest elevations with some snow showers with everyone else seeing possibly some flurries....that's right. No accumulations, but a chance of some white precip. Temps will of course be cooler on Sunday into early Monday with highes not getting out of the 40's

We should start to clear skies by Sunday evening into Monday. Temperatures will try to rebound on Monday as our current wx maker moves out of here and to the NE. Upper-level winds will be from the NW, so I'm not expecting too much of a warmup for Monday afternoon.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of my 3-day forecast, as a high pressure region funnels warm air into the CWA from the SW. Expect temperatures to warm into the lower 60s for most locations. Another storm system looks to affect our region later next week as it moves in from the Great Plains.

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